Forecast-based prep
Forecast-based prep sizes a prep list from the sales you expect, not from past usage. Rinvy takes each menu item's forecast or plan, runs it through the item's recipes, subtracts the stock on hand, and recommends batches. Forecast prep is on the Pro plan and helps most when your sales swing with holidays, events, or weather.
By default, prep list batch recommendations come from burn rate, your average daily use over a lookback window. Averaging is the simplest way to smooth out day-to-day noise (NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods), and the smoothing is also burn rate's blind spot: it can't see ahead. If next Friday falls on a holiday, brings unusually warm weather, or follows a marketing push, last month's average won't catch the spike.
How it works
When forecast mode is enabled on a prep list, Rinvy:
- Applies the stored demand forecast day by day over the prep window's actual dates (from today through the day before the prep run after this one takes over) — dates inside the forecast window use that exact day's predicted portions, dates beyond it use the item's per-operating-day average, and closed days contribute nothing.
- Multiplies those expected sales × the menu item's recipe ingredients × the portion multiplier.
- Rolls the ingredient demand up through any sub-recipes (recipe explosion).
- Subtracts current stock and divides by recipe yield to get recommended batches.
The target is the forecast demand plus the forecast buffer. Burn-rate prep adds the product's minimum stock on top of its need. Forecast prep uses minimum stock as a floor instead: when the buffered demand is below the minimum, the target is the minimum.
The Forecast buffer field works as it does on the order list (see order list with sales forecasts). An AI forecast starts at how far your forecasts typically miss, and a plan or typed numbers start at 0%. Change it before you generate the list. Rinvy doesn't save the change.
The order list's forecast mode uses the same mechanism: untouched items keep the forecast's exact per-day portions, and editing an item's expected sales rescales its day-to-day shape proportionally rather than flattening it (setting 0 removes the item).
The output is the same shape as burn-rate-based prep — batch counts per recipe — but the math is forward-looking.
Build from a plan
If your kitchen has Plans, the Sales forecast option shows a Build from list instead of the per-day editor. Pick a plan or the latest AI forecast, then generate. The prep list uses the whole total of the plan. On a plan's page, Build prep list opens this page with that plan picked.
Prerequisites
Forecast-based prep needs:
- Pro tier for the
demandForecastfeature flag. Prep lists (prepLists) come with Standard and Pro, but only Pro can build one from a forecast or plan. - Sales data uploaded — forecasts use sales history as the primary input. Without sales, the forecast falls back to burn-rate-derived estimates.
- Menu items linked to recipes (forecasts are per-menu-item; recipes are how they get converted to ingredients).
- A current forecast — see the demand forecast page to refresh.
How do I build a prep list from the sales forecast?
Pick Sales forecast under Suggest from when you create the list.
On the Prep page, tap New prep list.
- Under Suggest from, switch from Burn rate to Sales forecast.
Enter Expected daily sales per menu item, or tap Load from AI forecast when a forecast exists. With Plans, pick the source under Build from instead.
- Pick the Prep day, check the Forecast buffer, and tap Generate prep list.
- Review the draft, adjust batches as needed, and approve.
The signal is set per prep list, not per recipe. To compare the two, generate a second list for the same day with Burn rate. Rinvy warns that the day already has an open list, and you can discard the one you don't use.
When to use which
| Situation | Use |
|---|---|
| Stable weekly cycle, no upcoming change | Burn rate |
| Holiday weekend or known event | Forecast |
| Recent menu change, no sales data yet | Burn rate (forecast won't have enough history) |
| Weather-sensitive menu (patio, cold drinks) | Forecast |
| First few weeks on Rinvy | Burn rate (forecasts need history to be useful) |
Why do forecast and burn-rate batches disagree?
Burn rate averages the whole lookback window, while a forecast predicts each date in the prep window. The gap can be large, for a few reasons:
- Forecasts know the US holidays in the window: the federal holidays on the OPM holiday schedule plus days such as Valentine's Day, Mother's Day, Easter, and Halloween.
- Forecasts can adjust for weather, day of week, operator-entered context, and day notes logged during the history period.
- Forecasts learn from their own track record — persistent over- or under-predictions (including per-weekday patterns) get corrected in the next generation.
- With a weather location set, forecasts also weigh observed weather history — how your kitchen actually traded on rainy vs. dry and warm vs. cold days — not just the upcoming forecast.
- A forecast for tomorrow says "we'll sell 40 burgers" — burn rate says "we sold 24 burgers/day on average over the last 30 days."
When they diverge, trust the source with more information about that specific day. For a normal Wednesday, burn rate is fine. On Mother's Day, the forecast captures the spike that the burn-rate average smooths away.
Common mistakes
Switching to forecast mode with an outdated forecast
The Outdated chip on the demand forecast page lists exactly why a forecast is behind — generated more than a day ago, changed business context, new sales data, changed menu items, or a window that has already passed. Regenerate before relying on forecast-based prep.
Expecting forecasts to be exact
A forecast is a prediction with uncertainty. Use it as a starting point, then adjust based on what you know about the day.
Forgetting to upload sales data
Without sales data, the forecast falls back to burn-rate-style estimates. The "switch" between modes becomes cosmetic. Upload at least 30 days of sales for forecasts to be meaningful.