Forecast-based prep
By default, prep list batch recommendations are computed from burn rate — historical consumption rate over a lookback window. Burn rate is a great signal for most kitchens, but it has a blind spot: it can't see ahead. If next Friday is a holiday, has unusually warm weather, or follows a marketing push, last month's average won't catch the spike.
Forecast-based prep flips the model: instead of "what did we use last month?", it asks "what will we sell tomorrow, and what ingredients does that require?"
How it works
When forecast mode is enabled on a prep list, Rinvy:
- Reads the demand forecast for each menu item across the prep window (default: through the next prep date).
- Multiplies forecasted sales × the menu item's recipe ingredients × the portion multiplier.
- Rolls the ingredient demand up through any sub-recipes (recipe explosion).
- Subtracts current stock and divides by recipe yield to get recommended batches.
The output is the same shape as burn-rate-based prep — batch counts per recipe — but the math is forward-looking.
Prerequisites
Forecast-based prep needs:
- Pro tier for both
prepListsanddemandForecastfeature flags. - Sales data uploaded — forecasts use sales history as the primary input. Without sales, the forecast falls back to burn-rate-derived estimates.
- Menu items linked to recipes (forecasts are per-menu-item; recipes are how they get converted to ingredients).
- A current forecast — see the demand forecast page to refresh.
Enabling forecast mode on a prep list
- Open the prep list while in DRAFT.
- Switch the recommendation source from Burn rate to Sales forecast.
Review the new recommendations. They'll typically differ from burn-rate numbers — sometimes meaningfully.
- Adjust as needed and approve.
The mode is set per prep list, not per recipe. You can switch back to burn rate any time before approving.
When to use which
| Situation | Use |
|---|---|
| Stable weekly cycle, no upcoming change | Burn rate |
| Holiday weekend or known event | Forecast |
| Recent menu change, no sales data yet | Burn rate (forecast won't have enough history) |
| Weather-sensitive menu (patio, cold drinks) | Forecast |
| First few weeks on Rinvy | Burn rate (forecasts need history to be useful) |
Why the numbers can move a lot
Burn rate and forecasts can disagree significantly. A few reasons:
- Burn rate averages across the lookback window; forecasts are date-specific.
- Forecasts can adjust for weather, day of week, and operator-entered context.
- A forecast for tomorrow says "we'll sell 40 burgers" — burn rate says "we sold 24 burgers/day on average over the last 30 days."
When they diverge, trust the one that has more information about the situation. For a normal Wednesday, burn rate is fine. For Mother's Day, the forecast is right and burn rate is wrong.
Common mistakes
Switching to forecast mode with stale forecasts
Forecasts go stale if business context or weather changes. Refresh the forecast on the demand forecast page before relying on forecast-based prep.
Expecting forecasts to be exact
A forecast is a prediction with uncertainty. Use it as a starting point, then adjust based on what you know about the day.
Forgetting to upload sales data
Without sales data, the forecast falls back to burn-rate-style estimates. The "switch" between modes becomes cosmetic. Upload at least 30 days of sales for forecasts to be meaningful.